Each year a forecast of the potential for winter finch irruptions is published by the Finch Research Network. Although these forecasts are especially focused on Ontario and adjacent states and Canadian provinces, often they can suggest movements in more southern states. That was definitely the case with the “Winter Finch Forecast 2020-2021” which can be found here - https://finchnetwork.org/winter-finch-forecast-2020. That forecast certainly caught many birders’ attending with this first sentence– “It looks to be a flight year for several species in the East.” That would actually turn out to be quite an understatement, particularly for birders here in the Carolinas. Here are key quotes from that report for several species forecasted to irrupt this winter –
Purple Finch - The worst kept secret, most Purple Finches
will migrate south out of Eastern Canada this winter.
Red Crossbill - Red Crossbills are currently fairly
widespread in Central Ontario to southern Maritimes and northeastern states
mainly feeding in areas of heavy white pine crop. Red Crossbills should shift
southward some as the white pine crop is depleted.
Redpolls - If the redpolls move on from the Swamp Birch
crop, expect a moderate to good flight south out of the boreal forest.
Pine Siskins - The smaller numbers remaining in the eastern
boreal forest should move southward looking for food.
Evening Grosbeak - Expect flights into southern Ontario,
southern Quebec, Maritime Provinces, New York and New England States, with some
finches going farther south into the United States.
Red-breasted Nuthatch - With cone crops in the eastern
boreal forest mostly poor, expect this species to continue to move
southward.
The first notable local examples of movements of “winter”
finches came while we were actually still in summer – good numbers of Red
Crossbills were found feeding on an abundant white pine crop at lower
elevations in western NC. Although not
unprecedented, this certainly was outside their more expected spruce/fir forest
locations along the highest ridges. With
these movements I was lucky enough to add Red Crossbill to my SC list on 6/30/20
with birds just across the NC stateline, and to my Henderson County NC list on 8/20. Later I had a rare Red Crossbill farther to
the east in Polk County on 11/7/20. And
good numbers of Red-breasted Nuthatches were evident in these same areas,
resulting in another addition to my SC list on 9/6/20, as well as a first for
my yard list on 9/14/20. I have no pines
near my yard making Red Nuthatches most unexpected.
The next big irrupter was Pine Siskin. My first Siskin this fall was also a first
for my yard on 10/6/20. And what started
as just a couple single flyovers soon expanded to small flocks, and then to
even bigger flocks both as flyovers and at my feeders. I estimated my biggest feeder flock at 50,
with total flyovers in a single morning as high as 200. I took advantage of this irruption to add
Siskin to my SC list on 10/20. However, as
of mid-November I’ve been seeing smaller Siskin numbers – perhaps the greatest
number of birds has already passed on through the area.
Then there are the Purple Finches. My first birds in the yard this fall were on 10/14,
and although numbers never got as high as those for the Siskins, a flock of up
to 6 continue at my feeder as of mid-November, with numbers of flyovers
increasing to the low double digits. My
first PUFIs this “winter” in SC were on 10/20.
That takes us to what is perhaps the ultimate winter finch –
Evening Grosbeak. I grew up in Maryland,
developing my birding skills there in the 70’s and 80’s. During that time Evening Grosbeaks were a
regular occurrence many winters, especially at feeding stations. I remember large flocks descending on my
feeders, devouring the sunflower seeds and requiring re-stocking multiple times
each day.
However, their eastern populations have plummeted since that
time. Here is a paragraph I wrote for my
blog in December 2018 when I was looking for Evening Grosbeaks in New England –
But now 30 or 40 years later, Evening Grosbeak dynamics are
a whole different story in the East.
Here in New England, lately they have become a rare occurrence in the
northern part of the region, and virtually non-existent in the southern
parts. For instance, throughout most of
the southern portion of New England, Evening Grosbeak is now considered to be a
rarity in eBird requiring details. I
used to see them as a breeder most every summer at Pawtuckaway State Park in southern
NH. But their numbers have dwindled
there over the years, with the last eBird record coming in 2015. Since moving to New England in 1993, I’ve not
seen this species in CT or RI.
The 2018-2019 Winter Finch Forecast for Evening Grosbeak
ominously included this comment –
In April 2016 the Committee on the Status of Endangered
Wildlife in Canada (COSEWIC) listed the Evening Grosbeak a species of Special
Concern due to strong population declines occurring mainly in central and
eastern Canada.
In fact, some Canadian researchers recommended that the
eastern populations be listed as endangered.
With their numbers plummeting in the northeast, one can only
imagine how rare they have become farther south. Here is a summary of this species’
distribution from “Birds of North Carolina: their Distribution and Abundance” -
In the latter part of the 1960's and the 1970's, the species
made near-regular appearances every other winter, in good numbers, and even in
off years, a few were reported. However, the species has undergone a major
population decline in recent decades, and there have been relatively few North
Carolina reports in the past decade. Many "new" birders have yet to
see the species in the state, and it has often been missed by birders
conducting Big Years in the state. Fortunately, the winter of 2012-13 produced
a mild invasion into the East, with scattered reports again being made in the
state.
Soon after the publication of the 2020-2021 Winter Finch
Forecast came a couple southern reports of Evening Grosbeaks – one in TN on 10/26,
and another most surprisingly in the FL panhandle on 10/3. Could these be harbingers of what was to
come? More and more records were soon reported
in the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic. And
then came the first NC report - in Gates County in eastern NC on 11/1. That was just the beginning…
Then on November 4th came a text from Kevin Burke on the
Blue Ridge Birders text group that he had an Evening Grosbeak at feeders in his
neighborhood. Unfortunately, the bird
moved on 10 minutes before my arrival in Kevin’s neighborhood. I spent the next couple hours unsuccessfully
waiting for it to return. Plus a search
for a couple hours early the next morning were fruitless. Then on the 5th came another report of a
flyover flock at Beaver Lake.
So small numbers were definitely passing through the
area. Now I just needed to be lucky
enough to be in the right place at the right time. My strategy was to spend as much time as
possible in good habitat and cross my fingers that I would get lucky. I birded the Mt. Pisgah area along the Blue
Ridge Parkway on the morning of 11/6, finding 3 Ruffed Grouse and fair numbers
of migrating Siskins and Purple Finches.
But no Grosbeaks, and surprisingly no Red-breasted Nuthatches as
well. Then on the 7th I spent the
morning at the Green River Game Lands in Polk County finding a rare Red
Crossbill (only the 3rd for the county per eBird), plus a few PUFIs and
Siskins. But again no Grosbeaks.
My plan for the morning of the 8th was to do a “Big Sit” in
my yard. The morning started as most
recent days have been with a few flyover Siskins and Purple Finches. Then at about 7:30 I finally got my target –
I heard 2 different Evening Grosbeaks giving their diagnostic “jeer” calls north
of my yard. Both birds continued to call
as they flew closer with one moving east of the yard and the other to the
west. I thought they had continued on south
until I heard the western bird call one more time a couple minutes later from
the tree canopy nearby. I was hoping
that it might come to the feeders but it was not to be. They were heard-only birds, but certainly
good enough for a species whose call I’m very familiar with. And just for good measure, I had another
flyover Grosbeak on 11/20.
Here is the eBird map of recent Evening Grosbeak sightings
in the east as of 11/17 – from the sightings in the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio
Valley, to that one sighting down in the FL panhandle. And of course including my sighting on 11/8. Quite an irruption!
Evening Grosbeak was yard bird #137, and NC statebird #308. My statebird map for Evening Grosbeak is
provided below – the blue-shaded states are those where I’ve seen this species;
the cross-hatched states are those where it is regular but I haven’t yet seen
it. Or at least in the East, those are
states where Evening Grosbeak used to be regular. Alas…
And now NC is the single tan-shaded state where I’ve seen this species
as a rarity.
Could Redpolls be the next irrupter to be found in the Carolinas this winter? As of early November, the southernmost reports were from MD. But then came 2 NC reports - one on 11/13 in Granville County and one on 11/20 not too far away in Avery County. It’s certainly one to keep your eyes and ears open for.
